Before the recent escalation in the US-Israel conflict, crude oil prices were relatively stable, hovering just above $60 a barrel at the start of the year. However, the situation dramatically changed following the joint military actions initiated on February 28, 2026, against Iran.

As a direct result of these strikes, crude oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, marking a significant increase of about 50 percent in just over a week. Brent crude rose more than 20 percent, topping $114 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw an even steeper rise, climbing 28.7% to reach $119.96 per barrel.

The surge in prices is closely tied to the effective halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil transport. This strait typically sees the movement of approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil daily, representing about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. With Iran’s actions threatening this vital route, the market reacted swiftly.

As trading commenced in Asia Pacific markets, Brent crude jumped 26.3% to $117.08 per barrel, reflecting the immediate impact of the geopolitical tensions. The last time oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel was in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, highlighting the volatility of global oil markets in response to geopolitical events.

Experts warn that the ongoing conflict could lead to even higher prices. A spokesperson for the IRGC remarked, “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” indicating a potential for further escalation in prices if the situation does not stabilize.

Higher energy costs are also expected to exacerbate inflation, straining household budgets worldwide. As prices continue to rise, the economic implications for consumers and businesses alike are becoming increasingly concerning.

Chris Wright, an industry expert, stated, “In the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing,” suggesting that the current spike in prices may persist for an extended period. Meanwhile, Saad al-Kaabi noted that many companies may soon declare force majeure due to the ongoing disruptions.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the duration of the conflict and its long-term impact on oil prices. The uncertainty surrounding the timeline for stabilization adds to the anxiety in the market, as stakeholders await further developments.

As the situation unfolds, the crude oil price remains a focal point for analysts and consumers alike, reflecting the intricate relationship between geopolitics and global energy markets.

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