Since the onset of the war, the price of urea—a key fertiliser ingredient—has surged by an alarming 60% to 70%. This spike directly impacts farmers who rely on affordable fertilisers to cultivate their crops. A report from S&P Global highlights that food supply chains are already strained due to fuel and fertiliser restrictions stemming from the conflict.

This context matters because Africa remains a major food importer despite its capacity for agricultural production. Approximately 35% of the world’s supply of urea comes from Gulf states, making sub-Saharan countries particularly vulnerable to disruptions in this crucial resource. Yet, even with its agricultural potential, many African nations find themselves heavily reliant on imports.

The ripple effects are evident. Yara International, the world’s largest fertiliser company, has warned that the situation could lead to a global auction for fertiliser—one that will push prices beyond what vulnerable farmers can afford. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, stated, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.”

As these challenges mount, Ethiopia and Kenya find themselves at a crossroads. Both countries are heavily exposed to fluctuations in nitrogenous fertilisers sourced from the Middle East. The EU has announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers affected by these disruptions, but it may not be enough to mitigate the looming crisis.

The situation reflects broader issues within Africa’s agricultural sector. Many farmers are struggling financially; some even prefer day labour over farming due to consistent losses. One farmer lamented, “Farming only leads to financial losses. I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by.” This sentiment underscores the urgency of addressing food security in light of escalating costs.

Ultimately, as the Iran war continues to unfold, its implications extend far beyond its borders. The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that conflicts can have profound effects on food security across continents. The next steps taken by governments and international organizations will be crucial in determining whether African nations can weather this storm.

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The situation is dire. Reports indicate that the price of urea, a key ingredient in fertilisers, has surged by 60% to 70% since the onset of the war. This increase comes at a time when many African nations, such as Ethiopia and Kenya, are heavily dependent on nitrogenous fertilisers imported from Gulf states—responsible for 35% of the world’s urea supply.

This context matters because despite Africa’s potential to produce sufficient food, it remains a major food importer. The reliance on foreign supplies creates vulnerabilities that are now exacerbated by the ongoing conflict. The ripple effects can lead to food shortages and price hikes that disproportionately affect the continent’s poorest communities.

Key facts:

• The EU announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers impacted by the Iran war.
• S&P Global reported that fuel and fertiliser restrictions due to the conflict are challenging food supply chains.
• Yara International, the world’s largest fertiliser company with operations in over 60 countries, has noted that ammonia supplies have been affected by the war.

As Svein Tore Holsether from Yara International warns, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” With farming already leading many into financial losses—some would rather work as day labourers earning between 100 to 200 baht daily just to make ends meet—the stakes have never been higher.

The international community must recognize this crisis as interconnected. As agricultural imports dwindle and prices rise, officials and humanitarian organizations will need to devise strategies to mitigate these impacts before they spiral further out of control. The situation continues to evolve as reports of production losses accumulate; “We are losing production every day. It will take weeks or months to restart,” Holsether added.

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